Geopolitical risks: Ongoing events in Russia and Ukraine, the Middle East, and parts of Africa could lead to escalation in tensions and increased disruptions in global trade and financial transactions. Ultimately, the quality of data will depend on the attention and resources that member countries devote to it. Source data--including censuses, sample surveys, and administrative records-- are routinely assessed, e. Bloom, Nick, Stephen Bond, and John Van Reenen. Risks are two sided, but downside risks dominate. Swaziland is now called Eswatini. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
. Capacity, Unemployment, and Output Trends Percent, unless noted otherwise Economic activity across the main countries and regions remains uneven. . The distribution of risks to near-term global growth has become more balanced relative to October 2014 but is still tilted to the downside. Accelerator Model: Controlling for the User Cost of Capital Figure 4. . The sharp drop in oil prices has amplified the growth challenge for low-income oil exporters.
More generally, risk spreads have risen and currencies have depreciated in a number of commodity exporters, and risk spreads on high-yield bonds and other products exposed to energy prices have also widened. Lower oil prices and the gradual recovery in the euro area are expected to provide a lift to the region, offsetting the effects of the contraction in Russia and still-elevated corporate debt levels. Real Effective Exchange Rate 20 2014 16 18 6. As a result, growth is projected to reach 3. Measuring African Development: Past and Present London: Routledge. Subscribers are responsible for the accuracy and reliability of the metadata. Evolution of Break-Even Prices 14Shale oil production in the United States appears to be more resilient to falling oil prices, considering growing efficiency gains.
Undoubtedly, the Fund needs to strengthen its work in all these areas, but the realm of the possible is limited. . Reducing vulnerabilities against the backdrop of still-high risks of capital flow reversals must remain an important policy goal. Boz, Emine, Matthieu Bussière, and Clément Marsilli. Given the sharp fall in oil prices, oil exporters have become more vulnerable to these risks, in light of their higher external and balance sheet vulnerabilities, whereas many oil importers have gained buffers.
The average price of oil in U. Whereas the fall in oil prices between July and mid-October 2014 can be explained mostly by weak demand Figure 1. Investment continued to lead the downturn, as subdued external demand and worsening terms of trade caused companies to curtail capital budgets, notably in South America. But it is safe to assume that reducing the discrepancies in the data and reporting better metadata will reduce reputational risk. Two deep forces are shaping these evolutions over the medium term: Legacies of both the financial and the euro area crises are still visible in many countries.
As an application the perturbation technique is used to study the role of aggregation and borrowing constraints in the statistical rejection of some dynamic aggregate incomplete markets models. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and any other information shown on the maps do not imply, on the part of the International Monetary Fund, any judgment on the legal status of any territory or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The proper menu differs by country. . Key country indicators in the form of precompiled reports provide a useful vehicle to assess a situation at a glance and serve as a forum for formal production reviews.
Global metal consumption is expected to continue growing moderately, with slowing growth in China partly offset by higher demand growth in the rest of the world as economic activity recovers. The responsibility for collecting, processing, and disseminating the statistics is clearly specified. Higher values for the quality indices indicate higher quality levels. With no apparent impulse for a near-term pickup in activity, lower commodity prices, and reduced policy space in many economies, regional growth is projected at 0. Whether all the gains should be saved depends on the extent of economic slack in a particular economy, the strength of its fiscal position, and its needs. Statistics are produced on an impartial basis. Baseline Accelerator Model Annex Table 4.
Priorities vary, but many of these economies would benefit from reforms to strengthen labor force participation and trend employment, given aging populations, as well as measures to tackle private debt overhang. Summary of Inflation Table A6. Medium-term prospects have become less optimistic for advanced economies, and especially for emerging markets, in which activity has been slowing since 2010. For China, the main risk is failure to implement the reform agenda to address financial risks, rebalance the economy, and tap new sources of growth. Change in Exchange Rate vs. Downward revisions are concentrated among South American commodity exporters.
Performance of accelerated policy iteration is evaluated by solving a standard stochastic growth model. Brent Price Prospects, March 17, 2015 U. . Risks of stagnation and low inflation in advanced economies are still present, notwithstanding the recent upgrade to the near-term growth forecasts for some of these economies. The impact on output of more limited pass-through elsewhere in advanced economies with market-based oil prices for example, the euro area the Russian ruble a depreciation of 30 percent in real effective terms. Because these shifts typically result in relatively modest exchange rate movements, the impact on activity can be gauged by roughly adding such shifts in demand to the impact on activity of the portfolio preference shift.
. Their overall impact on global current account imbalances is, however, mixed. Real wages grew less than 1 percent in 2014, even as the labor market steadily strengthened. Composite data for country groups are weighted averages of data for individual countries. In the United Kingdom, lower oil prices and improved financial market conditions are expected to support continued steady growth.